Internal House and Senate party leadership elections are some of the most fascinating exercises to unfold on Capitol Hill.
Both House and Senate Democrats and House and Senate Republicans will choose their leaders in the coming days. And the changes are going to be seismic.
But not everyone is on board with heir apparent leaders. Thats what makes this process so intriguing. However, there are only two rules in leadership elections: You cant beat someone with no one. And â perhaps more importantly â its about the math.
Republicans are up first with elections in both chambers starting Tuesday morning.
THE HITCHHIKERS GUIDE TO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT ON CAPITOL HILL
For Minority Leader, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., is running against Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio. Current House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is not seeking to stay in leadership once his party isn’t in charge anymore.
If Democrats have 260 seats, Republicans would have 175. All incoming House Republicans (including non-voting delegates from U.S. territories) are allowed to vote in conference. The selection of Minority Leader does NOT go before the entire House like Speaker. So, the winning candidate only needs a simple majority. That would be 88.
The same for the race between House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., and Rep. August Pfluger, R-Texas, for Minority Whip.
Senate Republican leader John Thune, R-S.D., is running to keep his leadership position for the party in the new Congress.
Meanwhile, Democrats will begin elections for their House leader on Wednesday where Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., is expected to secure that nomination. No internal Democrat Senate leadership election date has been set.
There are some progressives and Democratic Socialists of America-affiliated Democrats who will be House Members next year who want someone other than Minority Leader Jeffries keep his position.
Who do they want instead? Well, no one has said. Again, you cant beat someone with no one. And frankly, its hard to believe that Democrats would not elect the first Black Speaker of the House.
But drill down on the math.
For the sake of argument, lets say Democrats have 260 House seats in the new Congress. First, Democrats must tap a nominee for Speaker in their Caucus. That needs a simple majority. So surely Jeffries will score at least 131 votes in a private ballot for Speaker.
The Speaker of the House is the Constitutional officer for the legislative branch of government â much like the President is for the executive branch and the Chief Justice of the United States for the judicial branch. Thus, the ENTIRE House votes for Speaker when it convenes the new Congress at noon on January 3.
There are 435 Members. If all Members cast ballots, Jeffries simply needs 218. Jeffries could lose 40 votes or so and still prevail. So that is not going to happen. He might not even lose more than a couple votes, frankly.
The Senate Democratic Caucus and Republican Conference work much the same way as the House. A simple majority wins for Majority Leader in the Democratic Caucus and Minority Leader in the Republican Conference. However, the selection of Senate Majority Leader is not a vote which plays out on the floor. The concept of “Senate Majority Leader” has only been around since the early 20th Century and is not mentioned in the Constitution. Remember what we said about the House Speaker being the head of this branch of government.
It would be hard to envision a scenario where Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., would not become Majority Leader after Democrats flipped the Senate in a beat down.
First, who else is running? Well
