Election Day is one week away. Most pundits are ready to declare the midterms over and Democrats the victors. But hold on: There are several reasons Republicans may outperform the gloomy polls and forecasts making headlines.
First, Democrats are unpopular. A recent CNN poll showed Democratic favorability at 35%, considerably below the 38% awarded President Trump in the most recent RealClearPolling average.
Second, Republicans are flush with campaign cash that is now flowing into tough races across the country. Money doesnt win elections (see: Kamala Harris), but it can help snag undecided voters. That is true especially in contests like the Michigan Senate race, where little-known Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is facing off against Mike Rogers, a veteran and moderate GOP former congressman.Â
Voters are just now discovering allegations about El-Sayeds possible family ties to the designated terrorist group, the Muslim Brotherhood, causing the polls to tighten. Fox News , “El-Sayed has also faced scrutiny over social media posts from his half-sister describing their mother’s alleged involvement in Muslim Brotherhood activism in the 1970s. He has denied personal or family ties to the organization and said he was raised by his father and stepmother.”
Third, President Trump is campaigning vigorously, reminding voters why they elected him. Given the incessant attacks on the commander in chief by the liberal media, his rallies are essential. Yes, his approval numbers have been weighed down by the Iran war, but his appearances will help drive turnout.
Fourth, the far left overwhelmed primaries earlier this year, causing Democrats to put up some controversial candidates, like Senate hopefuls James Talarico in Texas and Troy Jackson in Maine.
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Fifth, to quote a recent piece in The Economist: “The polls could be wrong.” While the publication concludes that polling errors at the national level have, in different elections, overcounted both Republicans and Democrats, when it comes to specific states and districts, the goofs follow “a remarkably consistent pattern.”
In the current races, The Economist writes, “applying the historical trend to this years polls reverses Democratic leads in the pivotal states of Alaska and Texas. In Ohio, the Democratic advantage would be cut to less than one percentage point, while Iowa and Kansas would move from being tied to leaning Republican.”
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CNN reported the same thing a few nights ago, with analyst Harry Enten describing Democrats lead in numerous toss-up states as “nominal” and pointing out that polling in states won by Trump in the past has undercounted Republicans by more than 4 points. If that same level of error persists, the GOP will win in Texas, Maine, Iowa and Kansas, and keep the Senate.
In this years election cycle, polling has come under even more scruti
