MORNING GLORY: The countryside versus the capitol part I

Who can handle “the pressure?”

The new film “Pressure” is an accurate retelling of the fateful days leading up to the Allies invasion of Normandy on June 6, 1944. The success of the were far from a forgone conclusion either as to the date of their launch or its chances of success. 

Then General Dwight “Ike” Eisenhower had to make the decision to “go-no go” in the early days of June 82 years ago, and the pressure on “Ike” was enormous and unrelenting. Tens of thousands of soldiers lives hung in the balance, as did the fate of millions under Hitlers evil rule. The film provides a superb lesson on such moments and Ikes (played by Brendan Fraser) willingness to make the final decision amidst the uncertainties of weather and Wermacht deployments is a testament to the granite from which he was made. 

Ideally, American voters would look for Ikes qualities in every presidential election — for the ability to make the best decisions on the most important choices — but thats not how it turns out. Rarely do voters think about the biggest decisions and who ought to make them. Usually, voters are carried along by their own sense of their own well-being as well as cross-currents in the culture that are driving deep divides across the countrys vast electorate.

If there is an incumbent in the Oval Office , it is almost always a “referendum election” on how he has done in the job. 

But when there is no incumbent, American voters use entirely different calculations. 

One theory of how Americans actually pick presidents when “change” dominates the countrys political atmosphere and there is no incumbent: Voters choose the candidate with the personality type most different from the incumbent when the incumbent isnt running. This grand theory of presidential politics is often associated with David Axelrod, longtime advisor to former President Barack Obama and the Democrats answer to Karl Rove when it comes to a grasp of the big and the small details of American politics.

A second “grand theory” is the “capital versus the countryside.” One of Americas sharpest analysts of politics over the past half century is Michael Barone. A decade ago, the American Enterprise Institute scholar observed “The capital versus the countryside: thats the new political divide, visible in multiple surprise election results over the past eleven months. It cuts across old partisan lines and replaces old divisions — labor versus management, North versus South, Catholic versus Protestant — that traditionally divided voters.” Another way of putting this divide is coastal elites v. “fly-over” country. 

Combine both approaches and you get the classic four square box. A candidate of either party has a general personality either like or not like the incumbent, and a candidate represents the Beltway or the anti-Beltway sentiments. 

Two candidates who from the termed-out incumbent as well as being anti-Beltway were Presidents Obama and Trump. Joe Biden was very much a creature of the Beltway and the elites who despised Trump, and when Trump roared back with the greatest political comeback in American history it was very much countryside v. capital at work.

The 2028 cycle unofficially kicked off with first big, splashy profile of an almost-certain candidate in the form of a lengthy Wall Street Journal profile of former Ambassador to Japan, Mayor of Chicago, Chief of Staff to Obama and Deputy Chief of Staff to President Bill Clinton as well as former Congressman and investment banker Rahm Emanuel. 

Emanuel is as close to the complete Beltway insider as Democrats will come in the 2028 cycle. Hes also very smart, exceptionally skilled in the dark arts of politics, and a traditional center-left Democrat. While as combative as Trump, Emanuel is sheep-dipped in the language of legacy media and very much an intellectual and master of the details. 

He is also Jewish and his middle name is Israel. Can such former quali